April 16, 2020
Without knowing mankind has entered the Global Darker Night that has been foretold by the ancient people all over the world and by the Bible and other sacred texts, you would only be seeing what is being reported in the news. And you would only be looking at how you and everyone else is having to live life now on lockdown. But knowing its the time that it's the time when the brokenness of the world is going to be healed, you can look at everything that is going on, and understand why it's happening.
I'm going to do a summary of what is happening in the world and then explain why it's happening.
The stock market is a window where we can see everything. We have been enjoying a bull market for a very long time, just like we're been living the good life in terms of stuff for a long time. Now that we have entered the Global Darker Night this is ending. We know that we are not going to be in a bull market anymore. We entered a bear market when the pandemic hit and investors lost 25% of the value of their stocks very quickly. Then a bull market rally started when the government announced the trillions of dollars relief package around March 23rd. if you follow what is going on, the unknowns about the state of the pandemic and the damage it's done, and what we need to be doing, decisions to buy or sell is much more complex and the charts are volatile, big moves up and down. When we see more of what's unknown now, the buying will be ending, and we will be back to the bear market that started in February and it will be going to go much further down.
These are some of the specifics of the stock market drama and the news that paint a picture of the complexity of the drama we are going through that is evolving us.
Wall Street's articles are making brilliant arguments for both being in a bull market still, and the stock market being in a bull market rally started by the good news of a relief package that is going to end and we'll be back in the bear market going down. We have been moving up for a very long time in a spectacular bull market, and then a shoe fell off and down it went. The government then stepped in and up it went and they want us to think we are going all the way back up to where we were and continuing the bull market we've been in for years. From Market Watch: "Even in a bear market, there are occasional stunning rallies (often fueled by the Fed pumping up asset prices with ungodly amounts of money). Any future rallies should be treated with suspicion (such as last week’s rally, the best in 45 years) as they are unlikely to last for long. In fact, some of the strongest rallies have occurred during bear markets." So are we waiting for the other shoe to drop? Many are saying "yes" and that it's going to be bad. The market is going to reflect the severe damage done to the economy as soon as it all comes into view. Until then, they don't have to think about it.
Amidst the first quarterly reports starting to come out, there was an announcement yesterday that the government may open areas of the country before May 1st. So now there is more 'good' news driving the market up while the unknown bad news about companies and businesses, all interconnected and relying on each other, losing too much money and laying off employees and eventually having to close down because they've run out of money, is still hidden. We can reopen now and they will still be losing money unless people went right back to spending money on goods and services exactly like they were, which isn't what happened in China and won't be happening here either.
As they make the plans to reopen there is a lot of dialogue on both sides on the internet where we can put together the whole picture of what they are having to consider as they make the move to open the economy back up. They are weighing the risks of people dying, against "economic suicide" the continuing damage to the economy that is already devastating. A financial article today reports banks saying that "a nasty recession was on the horizon as the country was thrust into a downward spiral". There's an emotional battle that goes like this, getting the economy reopened is vital but if cases of the virus start to climb again, we will all go back to our homes and wait even longer than we would have has we stayed in them until the virus was more under control, and more people will get sick and die. Dr. Fauci and the team are looking for the balance between protecting people physically, and protecting America's economy and our individual quality of life we've built. There's a great deal to consider that I will go into in more detail. It looks like we are between a rock and a hard place with no way to figure out what the right answer is. We just open the economy up in baby steps and test it out.
Some doctors are looking at the pandemic and social distancing a new way now that there's more data. The way their argument goes is the precautions were appropriate at first but now that we have the data to show us what is going on, more damage to the economy is needless. They believe we can and should open up the economy now based on their sound science.
We know that the original model the government was basing their the closing of the economy of was way off in terms of the number of people who were going to die. As the data is coming in, what they are seeing is the numbers of people carrying the virus rising because of the increase in testing, but the deaths remaining the same. In other words, if everyone will ultimately be catching the virus, if we had never done the shutdown and stay at home, the deaths would have been the same because most people who have the virus will not get sick and the percentage of the ones that do will have been the same and this percentage is very small. They argue then that not opening up now is a huge mistake because it's continuing to damage the economy further. The damage couldn't have been helped because we didn't know what was going on and needed to take every precaution, but now we can stop. As I listened to this I saw something missing in this reasoning.
Even if there's far fewer deaths than originally thought, we still have the problem of the hospitals being overwhelmed by too many sick people needing to be in the hospital coming it all at one time and people who would have recovered die because they were left in the hall or didn't get the care they needed. Some believe social distancing appears to slow the spread to elevate that problem. Others disagree. How can we stop doing it if we don't know for sure?
If all the medical field could get on the same page about the data, the government would still follow the plans that are in place, starting soon and taking it slow, with the goal to stop the economy from further damage by safely seeing if we can. The goal started off as shut everything down and distancing until we have more data. They the goal was to keep it that way to spread out those who would be needing to go to the hospital in order to save the lives of the ones would have made it but didn't get the care they needed because there were too many at one time. They have needed to figure out at what point in the life of the virus spreading there wouldn't be too many needing to be in the hospital. A vacine at the hospital doors as the sick walked in would solve the problem but most likely, from what Dr. Fauci said, there won't be a vacine discovered, manufactured and available in all hospitals for everyone who comes in for many months, not in time to help with saving the economy any time soon. Without a vacine, they are trying to look at the data and figure out if the number of new cases dropping is indicating that hospitals aren't going to be overwhelmed anymore.
Other arguments for reopening the economy go something like this. Staying away from others and wearing masks makes sense when it's so contagious but it's going to be around for months, everyone will be catching the virus, a huge percentage of which will never know they had it, so do we keep doing what we are doing, or is the right thing to take more risks and make a life where there's a balance of caution and living and working again so there's less damage to the economy?
The scientific data we need to not be taking any risks with anyone's life is this. If we are testing, and everyone being tested either has the virus or has the antibodies for it, then we will know who everyone is who was going to get sick and who would die from it. The economy could be completely opened. But can we wait for that time? At what point of the testing would we know we are close enough to that place that we know hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed?
Another consideration in the mix is medical practices are empty and people with other lethal health issues are going to die because they are afraid to go to the them because of the lock down. Surgeries have been postponed and they could die.
The stock market which is supposed to reflect the state of the economy can't. Figuring out the unknown about life on the other side is mare than daunting. It's going to take weeks to start mirroring what we don't know yet, and as it unfolds in stages over years.
We aren't going to really see the devastation to our way of life until the economy has reopened and people go back to life and work and they are actually looking at the difference between what it was before and what it is after. And we don't know what the remaining aftermath of being in lockdown will be until we are months into trying to get the flow of business back on track. On top of this, people aren't going to be in the same psychological state of well being as we were. Going through this drama has been traumatic and we will end up generally be more fearful.
There is more to this very complex place we are in but these are the basic problems were facing right now.
So why does all of this need to happen to move mankind through the Global Darker Night? The answer is seen when you study how a dark night of the soul starts and progresses and what exactly it's doing to us. The first phase was to stop us and the second was to remove our life to rebuild it the way it should be, both balanced and sane. The Inca's "...a turning over of the earth for a new planting" is quite literal, along with 'a time of purification" and a time of great fear, not knowing what's going to happen day after day and how bad it's going to get, and sorrow over losing the life we had. The Bible says it's a time of "weeping and gnashing of teeth." Anther key emotion during this time is anger. People are in intense pain and they need to blame someone for it. And when people are in intense pain they use anger to try and get someone to do something to make it go away. The difficulty of death and rebirth in one's soul is beyond words to describe it. It's beyond fear, beyond grief and beyond anger.
As mankind enters more deeply into the Global Darker Night, things going wrong will get considerably worse, making us feel helpless, broken and desperate to be let out of the hell we're in. These are the experiences, the only experiences that make us all that we can be and have the life we've always wanted.
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